Monday, December 07, 2009

The beginning of the end….

The 2012 prophecy might have its core in South Asia

An interesting aspect of the increasing Chinese intrasigence and the Naxal violence is that they have gone up hand in hand with the increase in turmoil in Pakistan and its inability to contain the homegrown jihadis from becoming a Frankenstein. So, is it a mere coincidence or there’s a strong correlation between the two? It goes without saying that for long Pakistan armed forces have been armed, trained and incubated by the Chinese. Therefore it isn’t surprising that much of the Pakistani military nuclear and missile launching capabilities have a Chinese connection, sometimes direct and often routed through North Korea. Now that Pakistan is getting entangled in its own quagmire, chances of it getting disintegrated in the future are not that distant any more. And if that nightmare ever comes true with a federal government (however weak it might be) being replaced by psychic warlords with access to nuclear warheads and support of some sections of Pakistan Army, apocalypse in India would just be a matter of time. And indeed it would be India before anyone else (not even the US) who would be hit first. Therefore chances are high that India might even work in tandem with the US to bring some kind of normalcy in Pakistan and might even help the establishment over there to fight out the rogue elements. Already the common man over there is finding much commonality with his Indian counterpart in his increasing disgust and hatred towards this mindless violence by some rabid war mongers in the name of pure Islam who are no more sparing the Muslims either. And if this common hatred eventually ends up bringing India and Pakistan together, then even though it would surely help in diffusing one of the world’s most dangerous melting points, it would definitely give sleepless night to many others. And the leader among that pack would surely be China.

That India would be the biggest competitor of China in future in terms of emerging as the next military and economic giant is no more a million dollar prophecy. For long, Pakistan was a wonderful way to contain this, slow but steady, rising elephant. Add to it, the success of democratic institutions in a semi-literate country and its increasing proximity to the US is an eye sore to many. But the chain of events in the post 9/11 scenario changed it all. China perhaps never had calculated the fact that a 9/11 like incident can ever happen and that the heat of the US would force Pakistan at gunpoint to destroy all seeds of poison that have been incubated painstakingly. And China’s frustration can be gauged from the rather shocking comments emanating from Chinese establishments that India perhaps has forgotten the lessons of 1962. For the intelligent, this is good enough to give an inkling of the shape of things to come. The real issue here is whether India is in a position to contain the external and internal threats if they erupt all at the same time? And chances are high that such a thing can happen any time. So imagine if there’s a massive terror attack akin to 26/11 while at the same time a Kargil type scenario also emanates in Kashmir, while China, typically in the 1962 style, crosses over to Arunachal, while the Naxals start their final military assault to topple the Indian state. Is India in a position then to face all of it at the same time? Would it then just remain a local skirmish? It’s better to have sleepless night now than to wake up to this rude reality one fine morning. 2012, in any case, isn’t far away. Remember the Mayan prophecy?

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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