Monday, December 07, 2009

The beginning of the end….

The 2012 prophecy might have its core in South Asia

An interesting aspect of the increasing Chinese intrasigence and the Naxal violence is that they have gone up hand in hand with the increase in turmoil in Pakistan and its inability to contain the homegrown jihadis from becoming a Frankenstein. So, is it a mere coincidence or there’s a strong correlation between the two? It goes without saying that for long Pakistan armed forces have been armed, trained and incubated by the Chinese. Therefore it isn’t surprising that much of the Pakistani military nuclear and missile launching capabilities have a Chinese connection, sometimes direct and often routed through North Korea. Now that Pakistan is getting entangled in its own quagmire, chances of it getting disintegrated in the future are not that distant any more. And if that nightmare ever comes true with a federal government (however weak it might be) being replaced by psychic warlords with access to nuclear warheads and support of some sections of Pakistan Army, apocalypse in India would just be a matter of time. And indeed it would be India before anyone else (not even the US) who would be hit first. Therefore chances are high that India might even work in tandem with the US to bring some kind of normalcy in Pakistan and might even help the establishment over there to fight out the rogue elements. Already the common man over there is finding much commonality with his Indian counterpart in his increasing disgust and hatred towards this mindless violence by some rabid war mongers in the name of pure Islam who are no more sparing the Muslims either. And if this common hatred eventually ends up bringing India and Pakistan together, then even though it would surely help in diffusing one of the world’s most dangerous melting points, it would definitely give sleepless night to many others. And the leader among that pack would surely be China.

That India would be the biggest competitor of China in future in terms of emerging as the next military and economic giant is no more a million dollar prophecy. For long, Pakistan was a wonderful way to contain this, slow but steady, rising elephant. Add to it, the success of democratic institutions in a semi-literate country and its increasing proximity to the US is an eye sore to many. But the chain of events in the post 9/11 scenario changed it all. China perhaps never had calculated the fact that a 9/11 like incident can ever happen and that the heat of the US would force Pakistan at gunpoint to destroy all seeds of poison that have been incubated painstakingly. And China’s frustration can be gauged from the rather shocking comments emanating from Chinese establishments that India perhaps has forgotten the lessons of 1962. For the intelligent, this is good enough to give an inkling of the shape of things to come. The real issue here is whether India is in a position to contain the external and internal threats if they erupt all at the same time? And chances are high that such a thing can happen any time. So imagine if there’s a massive terror attack akin to 26/11 while at the same time a Kargil type scenario also emanates in Kashmir, while China, typically in the 1962 style, crosses over to Arunachal, while the Naxals start their final military assault to topple the Indian state. Is India in a position then to face all of it at the same time? Would it then just remain a local skirmish? It’s better to have sleepless night now than to wake up to this rude reality one fine morning. 2012, in any case, isn’t far away. Remember the Mayan prophecy?

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative


Friday, December 04, 2009

"IIPM News" - Nukes under fire

But the military says the weapons are safe and they are not allowing access to any foreign entity or state

Seymour M Hersh’s 7,000-word investigative article “Defending The Arsenal” published in The New Yorker magazine had a chilling effect in Pakistan, especially in the military establishment that denied its contents. It also prompted the academia and the media to enter into a debate arguing to what extent Pakistan’s nuclear assets are in safe hands.

“Seymour Hersh’s article reflects the continuing concern about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons that continues to be entertained in the semi-official circles and the think tanks in the United States,” Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi, Pakistan’s top defence analyst and scholar, told TSI.

“This thinking also runs into lower echelons of the official circles who write briefs for the policy makers. Therefore, his article does not reflect the official US perspectives,” he said. “However, it definitely shows that there are circles close to the American government that continue to toy with the worst case scenario of the terrorists getting access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapon-system and fissile material,” he added further.

“On April 29th, President Obama was asked at a news conference whether he could reassure the American people that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could be kept away from terrorists.

Obama’s answer remains the clearest delineation of the Administration’s public posture. He was, he said, ‘gravely concerned’ about the fragility of the civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari,” wrote Hersh. “Their biggest threat now comes internally,” Obama said. “We have huge… national security interests in making sure that Pakistan is stable and that you don’t end up having a nuclear-armed militant state,” Obama added further, according to Hersh.

“A senior Pakistani official, who has close ties to Zardari, exploded with anger during an interview when the subject turned to the American demands for more information about the arsenal,” wrote Hersh.

“Why are you not afraid of India’s nuclear weapons?” Hersh cited Pakistan’s unnamed senior Pakistani official as saying. “Today, he said, ‘you’d like control of our day-to-day deployment. But why should we give it to you? Even if there was a military coup d’etat in Pakistan, no one is going to give up total control of our nuclear arsenal. Never. Why are you not afraid of India’s nuclear weapons?” the official asked, according to Hersh. “Because India is your friend, and the longtime policies of America and India converge. Between you and the Indians, you will f*** us in every way. The truth is that our weapons are less a problem for the Obama Administration than finding a respectable way out of Afghanistan,” the Pakistani official has been cited as saying.

Hersh’s article was prominently published by Pakistan’s national media and generated a debate. However, the American apprehensions were refuted by Pakistan’s military establishment. In a terse statement, Pakistan’s chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee General Tariq Majid called The New Yorker’s report “absurd and plain mischievous.” Said he: “As overall custodian of the development of our strategic programme, I reiterate in very unambiguous terms that there is absolutely no question of sharing or allowing any foreign individual, entity or a state, any access to sensitive information about our nuclear assets.”

It seems Hersh’s article was a feeler to assess the reaction in Pakistan about American concerns as to what extent its nuclear assets are in safe hands and how the largely anti-American people in Pakistan would react if the Americans intervene militarily in time of a crisis.

“It is not very difficult to conclude that the Americans are very seriously concerned about the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan,” Dr Syed Jaffar Ahmed, chairman, Pakistan Study Centre, University of Karachi, told TSI. “On one hand, high officials of American Administration, including a person no less than the secretary of state says that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is in safe hands, but other segments of the administration have reservations in this regard. Hersh has indicated that some Americans have apprehensions about a coup within the army that can go against the Americans,” he said.
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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative



Thursday, December 03, 2009

Are the green shoots here to stay?

Signs of recovery are looking good but structural bottlenecks and fall in agriculture threaten the sustenance of India’s economic growth, says Deepak Ranjan Patra

It may be very unconventional, non-scientific and inappropriate to judge India’s economic recovery in the following manner, but it certainly shows a difference. Just look for the news pieces that talk about companies bagging orders and you will find while there were almost none during the early part of this year, there is a flurry of such news over last couple of months. This clearly indicates that whether technically right or wrong, recovery has already made inroads into the minds of many. Erstwhile, Chairman of the Reserve Bank of India, Bimal Jalan, tells The Sunday Indian, “I do not see any big problem in India’s recovery. Investments are picking up, IPOs are once again visible and the signs are absolutely positive. Whether it is 5.5 per cent or 6.5 per cent, we are showing one of the highest growth rates in the world. So the recovery is also coming faster.”

Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has shown his optimism by stating, “There are clear signs of an upturn in the economy. Like other countries we resorted to a significant stimulus and we will take appropriate action next year to wind this down”, during the recently concluded India Economic Summit. What is interesting in his statement is the fact that here he almost gave a relative deadline for removal of stimulus indicating that the government thinks the economy will be back on track by 2010. But the question remains, are these alluring green shoots sustainable?

Going by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), India has definitely moved a step away from the dire situation that it was in last year, if not recovered completely. IIP has grown a healthy 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) during April-September period of the current fiscal as against growth of mere 2.8% during financial year 2008-09. In the months of August and September, industrial production has clocked growth rates of 10.9% and 9.1% respectively, which by no means is a small achievement. But then it’s the reviving demand, especially in the urban areas, which is providing the required thrust. As per Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, Associate Economist, Moody's Economy.com, “Rebounding demand in urban centres, and inventory restocking have helped to support production, as has a recovery in external demand, led by emerging economies.” But then he attributes this rebound in demand to the fiscal stimulus provided by the government. That actually raises the question that what will happen when the government cuts back the stimulus packages?


In the meantime, while spurt in demand has made many happy, it has taken a few by surprise too. As per the latest data available with Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, in the month of October domestic sales of passenger vehicles have recorded a whopping 33% growth. While this has forced manufacturers to push production up, they are hold back by shortage of auto components. As per industry bodies, after a poor growth of 0.31% in car sales during FY08-09, many of the players had cut back their capacity and kept themselves prepared for a single-digit growth, but what came in their way is growth of over 20% in September and 30% in October. This completely caught the component manufacturers unprepared. Had they been prepared, the industry production of passenger vehicles could have grown better than 22%, which they achieved in October, 2009.

But it’s not only the auto sector that is looking resilient; the other sectors too are gaining ground. Bhavin Desai, Manager – Derivatives, Motilal Oswal Securities avers, “In Indian context second quarter numbers for many sectors viz. cement, banking, FMCG & pharma have been way ahead of expectation leading one to believe that we may be out of the woods.” Even the problem stuck aviation sector looks upbeat as Dinesh Keskar, President, Boeing India avers, “Despite the turmoil we still have a healthy backlog of 3,200 aircraft. Though we have witnessed limited order deferrals globally but our business in the Indian market hasn’t been affected much.” Impact of these positive outlooks is quite visible at the market place as Indian companies have started attracting the Foreign Institutional players (FIIs). The giant global investors, who withdrew their money from India during first 3 months of 2009, have been net buyers of over $7.5 billion during September and October. No doubt, these positive sentiments have allowed the Sensex to sustain at a high of around 17,000 despite the talks of a correction buzzing around.

However, this optimism is just one side of the coin. The other side, which is critical for the country’s real recovery, is still posing a threat. With more than 52% of the country’s work force dependent on agriculture, low farm output for the current fiscal is set to play spoilsport. Already the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has lowered its growth forecast from 7.2 per cent to 6.9 per cent, stating, “The decline in the growth is a result of decline in agricultural output." NCAER has projected the agricultural GDP to decrease by 1.5 per cent. Expressing similar concerns, Sherman Chan, Economist, Moody’s Economy.com avers, “India’s battle against downside risks is far from over… agricultural output is bound to tumble in coming months.

As the primary industry is hurt, the rest of the production chain will experience the flow-on effects. For instance, a sharp decline in farm output is expected to reduce demand for transport and storage services, and the supply for exports could also plummet.”

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative


Wednesday, December 02, 2009

IIPM :: News - AFSPA terror - A Woman versus a State

Her fight for a cause has taken a toll on her frail frame but her spirit is unbreakable

Shakhi Devi

Irom Chanu Sharmila’s mother who has stood by her all along


Irom Chanu Sharmila is my youngest daughter, and she takes up such a big issue and fights the world. She began her fast nine years ago, on November 2, 2000, after Assam Rifles forces killed 10 young men, all of whom were civilians, following a bombing of their convoy by militants. She refused to end the fast even after being arrested, being force-fed through her nose all these years, and being kept away from the people she loves. She refused to compromise even when the Prime Minister offered a set of cosmetic changes to the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) 1958.

We, mother and daughter, have an understanding: we do not see each other because if she sees me, Chanu may cry and it may weaken her mind. I support her despite the pain and suffering she goes through, because it is for a cause, as the AFSPA has resulted in a reign of terror. It is because of atrocities by security forces that many of our women staged a protest in the nude in front of the Assam Rifles headquarters in July 2004 holding up a banner asking the Indian Army to rape them. According to Justice Jeevan Reddy Commission, the AFSPA “has become a symbol of oppression, an object of hate and an instrument of discrimination and high-handedness”. Nothing, of course, has helped change things.

There is now an iron curtain around Chanu and Manipur, with the state not being able to face up to her struggle. The government sent her back from Delhi in 2006 as she had become an embarrassment after Iranian Nobel laureate Shirin Ibadi declared her support for Chanu’s struggle and what she stands for. Lately, the government of Manipur has done everything to keep people away from her. as people from across the country, along with many from around the world, began to talk about the atrocities by security forces in the name of fighting insurgency in the North-east, especially Manipur.

At least 200,000 people have died and suffered in the shadow of the Act in Manipur since it was imposed 50 years ago. The atrocities continue, with the government looking away, making false promises and doing its best to hush up cases. Every election, our political leaders come promising to fight the Act; once the elections are over, all is forgotten. The recent killing of former militant Chongkham Sanjit in cold blood only shows what security forces here do routinely. In the past, there have been cases such as the rape and murder by the Assam Rifles of Thangjam Manorama in 2004. In the 1980s, there was Operation Bluebird in Oinam in the Ukhrul district of Manipur, again by the Assam Rifles. Operation Bluebird has gone down as one of the worst cases of human rights violations by security forces in not just the country but the world. The victims of the operation have received nothing but harassment at the hands of the government. Noted writer Mahasweta Devi, who was here recently, wasn’t allowed to go near Chanu. But do not take Chanu lightly—she is steely in her determination. I support her. She must win.
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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative



Tuesday, December 01, 2009

IIPM News - Special home at Jantar Mantar

Shahid Jeelani has a special home at Jantar Mantar. Ask anybody about Jeelani’s abode and he’ll direct you towards a car. One can easily see his belongings peeping out of the car that is parked here.

Shahid Jeelani is no pauper. A resident of the posh Meera Colony in Jodhpur, Jeelani owns 300 acres of land. But his quest for justice has made him come to Jantar Mantar. An ICWA by profession, Jeelani alleges that his in-laws killed his wife and usurped his properties worth crores. His in-laws, in cohort with the police, allegedly implicated him in his wife’s murder and threw him in jail in 1996. But he kept on writing petitions after petitions to the President asking for justice. He was lucky enough that his voice was heard and on the President’s insistence, his case was transferred to a special court. The court later found him not guilty. He is now waging a battle to bring his wife’s killers to book.

He has once even attempted suicide in front of Jodhpur High Court. He has continued to seek the President’s intervention since then. “In the last four years, I have spent most of my days at Jantar Mantar. Whenever there is some order from Rashtrapati Bhawan, I carry it to Jodhpur. When it is stopped, I come back to Jantar Mantar,” he says.

Jeelani has had a brief tryst with bureaucracy too. He even managed to clear Preliminary and Mains exams of the Civil Services entrance. However, being an inmate, he was not allowed to take interview. “I was freed later but I would have been an IAS if it had not happened at the first place,” rues Jeelani. Now he asks government to give him the regular salary of an IAS officer and a beacon-fitted car.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative